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Analysis: US-China Yield Curve Comparison

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Contextualising the ‘Beijing Model’ as an alternative to the liberal international order (LIO) views the loss of liberal normative commitments as the vice of American decline and centuries of development

Article by Jasper Wiggins

Image: King of Hearts, Wikipedia Account

The Rules Based Order and China: Are they Compatible and is Integration Necessary?

Australian Political Analysis Review - Open Source Independent Education

John Ikenberry’s support for integrating the People’s Republic of China into the Liberal World Order offered an optimistic but cautious review of the resurgence of Great Power politics in the 21st century. China as the world’s leading export market would gain a net-positive sum of commercial benefits with unrestricted trade barriers at the cost of its strict-currency controls and domestic economy. This should be considered in light of President-Elect Donald Trump’s quasi-isolationist approach to liberal institutionalism, which considers the prospect for duopoly between the Dollar and Yuan as unlikely. Finally, contextualising the hypothesised ‘Beijing Model’ as an alternative to the liberal international order (LIO) observes the forfeiting of liberal normative commitments to free-trade and multilateralism as the vice of American decline and centuries of development.

The Deed of Settlement: The Costs of Buying into the West

To some extent, China can already be described as a participant in economic exchanges with the West. China for example participates in the World Trade Organisation and has filed complaints against the European Union’s imposition of tariffs against electric vehicles. China’s response to the EU underscores an identity crisis incurred by many Western countries: to what extent does our commitment to free-trade and multilateralism discount national sovereignty and our domestic unemployment rates. If the EU cannot locate a middle ground, then it is reasonable to conclude that, contra-neoliberal assessment, recognition of domestic economic performance as a greater priority than that of the international. Already, China has experienced a consequence of balancing economic international interdependence in the political economy with domestic monetary policy.

 

Unipolarity under the United States poses another point of grievance particularly if China can be concluded in wanting to maximise its economic predominance in South Asia. Geo-political contradictions between the US’s aspiration to safeguard Taiwan would invalidate healthy competition unless resolved prior to bilateral agreement. Trump’s trade war, noticeably continued by the Biden administration, does upon face value, discount most prospects for reconciliation. Indeed, Ikenberry considered the potential for a multipolar world order as compromising the health of the LIO, and by extension, multilateralist norms and peace. The reality is less forgiving for the LIO when China and Russia’s military and economic partnership is scrutinised by critical neo-realist John Mearsheimer who argues amity between the two are a direct result of US provocation. Neoliberals however refute this, arguing unipolarity as core to the liberal peace since the collapse of the USSR and therefore, essential to taming what Kenneth Waltz described as ‘anarchy’ without hegemonic determination.

 

Nonetheless, recent assessments by economists consider the potency of the combined authoritarian market capitalist model. According to Stefan Halper, China has determined that the entrenchment of a liberal capitalist system of government is antithetical to its economic predominance. Struggle for power, even in a two-party parliamentary setting, is thought to be compromising of long-term economic agenda according to Beijing. Both credit-rating institutions and the Chinese Government have forecasted a positive bond curve of at least 2.1% extending well beyond 2050. This suggests net-positive currency and economic growth in the long term. While this cannot entirely be attributed to authoritarian adjudication of monetary policy in China, a single consensus by the Chinese Communist Party implies that long-term assurances to investors can be tamed by one-party rule.

The Dollar and Yuan: Duopoly or Continued Trade War?

Bidenomics’ emphasis on US jobs and energy can also be construed a continuation of institutional isolationism by US foreign policy. In this sense, the US can be described as shifting, at least ideationally, in its role away from hegemon. Indeed, the election of Donald Trump in November of 2024 further problematised the US’s projection of soft power if Trump is to reassert focus to the domestic economy of the US. This policy is characteristically mercantilist and may incur high import fees payable by exports which could dis-incentivise economic interdependence and deter investment. Ikenberry suggested ‘drawing China further’ into the LIO by elevating the Yuan to a similar level to the Dollar to match its potency. This analysis is problematic however as considering the Dollar is a debt-based currency suggests doing the same for the Yuan, China would need to shift away from microeconomic setting and recalibrate to macroeconomic valuation. This may significantly destabilise the Yuan and hurt the Chinese economy if currency controls are loosened which would impair China’s projection of its economy as soft power.

 

Another image of analysis Ikenberry considers is the merit of strong domestic institutions, requisite, for a strong rule of law. Ikenberry however does not consider legal analysis in China and only assumes it to be inferior to legal operation in the West contemporarily. Expanding Ikenberry’s analysis, Barry Eichengreen recognised the significance of the post-1945 period in establishing the legal and economic foundations of the LIO at Bretton Woods. In this sense, China would need to compete equally with the International Monetary Fund and perhaps possess the same sum of voting rights as the US and its allies. Alternatively, a duopoly characteristic of bipolar great power politics may emerge with the creation of a World Bank equivalent of its own. At this time, it is also necessary to consider the BRICS Bank hypothetically while assessing China’s prosperity as an active participant of the LIO.

Let’s Not Give up on the LIO: What would an Alternative ‘Beijing Model’ Look Like?

For economist Geoffrey Sachs, the institutional infrastructure of the LIO has been core to maintaining peace since the end of the Cold War. In his opinion, unipolarity has until recently, enabled the elevation of millions from poverty in the Global South while corresponding closely with the rise of China. The LIO, in Sachs’ view, should however be considered a tool for peace and multilateralism, rather than as an ideological tool as Ikenberry optimistically sees US hegemony. Following the liberal institutional approach, Ikenberry portrays China as a ‘spoiler state’ because it reaps only the benefits of US hegemony while resisting pressure to liberalise on a micro level. Ikenberry concludes that a Beijing Model would not embody liberal values and rather characterise cooperation on the notion of blocs or ‘mercantilist networks’ that would fundamentally contradict the principle of open international markets and the socialisation of liberal norms. Micro-analysis may indicate that this has occurred in Hong Kong SAR with the abrogation of English common law, however Hong Kong’s GDP growth since 1997 does not suggest this quantitatively. To some extent, Ikenberry’s emphasis on political ideology borrows from the neo-realist treatment of China as an external polity transacting with the West only on economic terms. Sachs however disagrees with Mearsheimer and proposes multipolar cooperation as more conducive avenue toward a longer lasting peace. For Sachs, integrating China as an economic and material partner of the West would be more conducive for engaging against global issues such as pandemics, and avoiding security dilemmas that may replicate Cold War policy.

Conclusion

Ultimately, Ikenberry’s analysis offers an overarching critique of US retreatment from the international as a symptom of an identity crisis of its own, and the rest of the world catching up. Examining the contract China would be required to treat to further integrate with the LIO suggested that a combination of supranational and ideological contradictions remain at the cost of China’s domestic economic prestige. On the other hand, China’s current trade conflict with the US proposes a duopoly between the Dollar and Yuan as something that would be inherently volatile and negative sum-producing in light of increased import tariffs by the US. Finally, divergence between Ikenberry and Sachs suggests the treatment of China as a partner to coordinating global policy is more important to international peace than direct competition as a hostile power reminiscent of great power conflicts in the late 19th century. 

Bibliography

Ikenberry, G. John. “The Future of the Liberal World Order: Internationalism After America.” Foreign Affairs 90, no. 3 (2011): 56–68. http://www.jstor.org/stable/23039408

 

Mearsheimer, John J. “The False Promise of International Institutions.” International Security 19, no. 3 (1994): 5–49. https://doi.org/10.2307/2539078

 

World Trade Organisation. “China initiates dispute complaint regarding EU definitive duties on electric vehicles.” World Trade Organisation. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news24_e/ds630rfc_06nov24_e.htm 

 

Waltz, K. “The Anarchic Structure of World Politics.” In Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary Issues. (2015).  Pearson Education LTD

 

Trump, Donald J. “Agenda 47: Rescuing America’s Auto Industry from Joe Biden’s Disastrous Job-Killing Polices” Donald J Trump Agenda 47. https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-rescuing-americas-auto-industry-from-joe-bidens-disastrous-job-killing-policies 

 

World Government Bonds. “China Government Bonds – Yields Curve.” World Government Bonds. https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/country/china/

 

China Central Depository and Clearing Co Ltd. “China Government Bond Yield Curve.” China Bond. https://yield.chinabond.com.cn/cbweb-mn/yield_main?locale=en_US 

 

International Monetary Fund. “IMF Members’ Quotas and Voting Power, and IMF Board of Governors.” International Monetary Fund Executive Board. https://www.imf.org/en/About/executive-board/members-quotas 

 

Liberty Vault. “John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs - Is China a Threat to the United States?” YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PM9uXDurPOo 


The World Bank. “GDP (current USD) Hong Kong, SAR” The World Bank Group Data. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=HK 

The Social Contract captures the relationship between consent to govern by the individual, and the extent to which the State exercises authority. Both Kant and Locke examine conditional express and tacit consent and how it compares with obliged moral duty. Kant's view towards the role of the State differs from Locke's notion that authority to establish a society is granted by the consent of the majority, rather than constitution. Ultimately, Kant's morally regulative approach challenges Locke, asserting that the empowerment of constitution requires the incorporation of popular obedience, to uphold enforceable legal authority.

Article by Jasper Wiggins

Article by Jasper Wiggins

Article by Jasper Wiggins

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